All posts by Taylor

Ben Bernanke to give speech tomorrow October 14,2010


Some speculate he may have dramatic things to say about how he envisions the Fed helping the US economy , and some say from this speech we will get a clearer picture of what is happening to the US dollar..
Me personally I think the dollar is near a major devaluation..the key thing I watch are Gasoline prices..
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Gold is currently at an all time high in the high $1300 an ounce.
Probably what needs to be done is the major powers of the world need to meet and come to a new consensus for the world monetary exchange rate system like the plaza accord agreement.
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The Plaza Accord or Plaza Agreement was an agreement between the governments of France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark by intervening in currency markets. The five governments signed the accord on September 22, 1985 at the Plaza Hotel in New York City.

The exchange rate value of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987. Most of this devaluation was due to the $10 billion spent by the participating central banks.[citation needed] Currency speculation caused the dollar to continue its fall after the end of coordinated interventions. Unlike some similar financial crises, such as the Mexican and the Argentine financial crises of 1994 and 2001 respectively, this devaluation was planned, done in an orderly, pre-announced manner and did not lead to financial panic in the world markets.

The reason for the dollar’s devaluation was twofold: to reduce the U.S. current account deficit, which had reached 3.5% of the GDP, and to help the U.S. economy to emerge from a serious recession that began in the early 1980s. The U.S. Federal Reserve System under Paul Volcker had overvalued the dollar enough to make industry in the U.S. (particularly the automobile industry) less competitive in the global market.
The 1985 “Plaza Accord” is named after New York City’s Plaza Hotel, which was the location of a meeting of finance ministers who reached an agreement about managing the fluctuating value of the US dollar.

Devaluing the dollar made U.S. exports cheaper to its trading partners, which in turn meant that other countries bought more American-made goods and services.

wikipedia

NATO created to keep the Germans down and Russians out of Western Europe

When I read this it all began to click , and my understanding of World War II began to grow.

For about 58 years west Germany and then reunited Germany where a vassal state/satellite of the US.
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In 2003 the Germans rebelled and stood up to the US by not supporting US decision to fight the second Iraq war.
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This insurrection was led by Gerhard Schroeder who was the Chancellor of Germany at the time and who now works for the Russian controlled company Nord Stream AG, Gazprom the major Russian energy company controls 51% of Nord Stream AG.
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Many authors believe for Europe to rise and be independent that Germany its’ strongest nation must be independent and many believe that this started to happen around the time of Gerhard Schroeder’s refusal to go along with the US in the Iraq 2 war in 2003.
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One way the US controls Western Europe is through NATO, by controlling NATO and keeping Western European countries in NATO the US is able to steer the direction of Western Europe.
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The Nord stream piple line and the South Stream pipeline threaten this by giving Russia more leverage over Western Europe, creating more Western European dependence on Russia ,and creating deep commercial and cultural links between knowledge rich western Europe and resource military rich Russia.
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This is an interaction that the US is not involved in or profiting from and is done in outside of the dollar and instead done in the Euro.
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The US is promoting an alternative pipeline to this called the Nabucco pipeline which is currently behind in the race with Russia’s Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines.

Pour some sugar on me

Like that hit single by the pop metal band Def Leppard from the early 1980’s .
It feels like the economy is doing better right now.
I am sure it is a temporary phenomena but ill take it.
I have heard two contradicting theories from financial people in my cab.
One person thought the government was pumping so much money into the system to help the democratic cause out before the November elections. That this was driving the stock market higher
The other person thought the money was coming in to the stock market due to the fact that the market thought that the republicans where going to gain power and he claimed the market liked gridlock in the balance of power between the to political parties.

Russia plays king maker..


President Medvedev of Russia was in Beijing on September 25, 2010 to celebrate completion of an oil pipeline from Russian Siberia to China. This event gives China diversification of energy supplies away from sea routes that the United States controls , and pipe lines from Central Asia that are tenuous.
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This also gives Russia leverage in dealing with Western Europe as Russia now has another market, to sell it’s energy resources to and which Western Europe is dependent.
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I believe that Russia’s current ruling elite ultimate goal though is integration with Western Europe and creating a common European space minus NATO, which was the French leader De Gaulles vision many years ago.
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These are all long term goals Medvedev will meet with French and German leadership in the next few days to discuss just such things.
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In my opinion the key pivot in all this is China, if the US can diminish Chinese buying power, then the US can again gain momentum on the global stage if not power will continue to slip from the US as new global alliances continue to take shape.

US takes toughest stance toward China I have seen in my lifetime

House passes bill to take on currency manipulators ..aka China..

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Ryan-Murphy currency devaluation bill on

Wednesday evening, which allows the government to impose tariffs and duties on exports from countries — China the likely target — that have held down their currency for artificial trade gains, but market reaction so far has been subdued.

The bipartisan bill, introduced by two Republicans, passed by a wide 348-79 margin.

“For so many years, we have watched the China-U.S. trade deficit grow and grow and grow,” Nancy Pelosi, current Speaker for the House, said in a speech ahead of the vote. “Today, we are finally doing something about it by recognizing that China’s manipulation of the currency represents a subsidy for Chinese exports coming to the United States and elsewhere.”


Paradigm shift accelerating

Every day I see about 3 to 7 stories like this about china cutting a new deal some where in the world this one is a 16 billion dollar deal with Ghana who are about to tap massive oil and gas fields, and think to myself who ever was in charge of US policy of allowing it’s own multinational corporations to ship its capital and factories out of the country and then send the goods back into the US without heavy tariffs was very foolish and not very street smart.
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China is trying to spend it’s dollar reserves that it gained from stupid US trade policies on tangible things as fast as possible as the US devalues it’s currency.
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China wouldn’t have all this currency to gain global leverage if the US didn’t have the lousy trade policies that allowed China to run trade surpluses that it allowed China to amass all these dollars she is spending around the globe .Now factions of the US elite are scared and trying to pass restrictive trade policies but it maybe too late to reverse course we will see.
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China has plans for massive railway expansion into Central Asia and then the mother lode of wealth Western Europe.
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When I read a ridiculous article about Brazil over taking the US in the Western Hemisphere one has to think the only way that this gets credence is because Brazil is really making a fortune selling to China , who got it’s burst of energy from trading with the US and extracting wealth from the US consumer.

Some Meanderings..

My writing has slowed down due some illness in my family , and increased attention to school work.
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I am writing from a very tired state right now so if there are spelling errors etc my apologies.
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Things that are on my mind are the nation state vs the corporation how they are interrelated and separate in regards to the United States of America.
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The value of things from social organizations to rivers to armies to name a few.
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How value is stored in the Dollar, Yuan, EURO , Gold and OIL.
Are we really on an oil standard as we were once on a gold standard.
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Oil is definitely a very useful and valuable commodity.
I have read books on peak oil and it is definitely food for thought.
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I also really enjoy geo politics and history.
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I am currently reading a book called The Great Transformation the political and economic origins of our time by Karl Polanyi , in all honesty though I haven’t done any reading in the book in about 6 days.(ouch)
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I am learning SQL right now. If anyone knows Oracle 11g to be exact and if anyone knows anything about joining 3 tables with and ON clause