I am a sometimes Peak Oil believer

A peak oil definition by Jason Brent goes like this
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“Peak oil can be defined in two ways— The first way is when total amount of oil withdrawn from the earth for use by humanity starts to decline; example— in year one 100 barrels of oil are withdrawn, in year two 120 barrels of oil are withdrawn, in year three 80 barrels of oil are withdrawn, and in year four 60 barrels are drawn – in this example year two is the peak oil year since in years subsequent to year two the amount of oil withdrawn goes down: The second way is when oil withdrawn per capita starts to decrease; example in year one 100 barrels of oil are withdrawn and there are 100 people on the Earth (one barrel per person), in year two 150 barrels of oil are withdrawn and there are 120 people on the Earth (1.25 barrels per person), and in year three 200 barrels of oil are withdrawn but the population has increased to 500 people (0.4 barrels per person)— in this example the peak oil year is year two as the amount of oil withdrawn per capita has reached its maximum in year two and has decreased in year three.”

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In plain talk it means there is not enough cheap oil readily available to keep running civilization the way we have been running it.

For the moment I am leaning away from Peak Oil although I think that it is generally a pretty plausible theory.
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I am going to have faith (just for today)that the Saudi’s really have as much oil in their oil fields as they say they do.
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That tar sands in Venezuela and Canada mixed in with emerging technologies should give humanity at least 20 years to get it together.
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On the other hand I believe oil is going to up in price not due to supply and demand but due to weakening currencies,speculation and collapse of the fiat money system.

Here is an excerpt from recent article of his ,

The American political elite – right and left – believes that we are different from the Europeans because we issue the dollar and therefore have some special privileges forever.

But this is not the 1950s. Asia has risen. Europe will sort itself out and become more fiscally Germanic. The Age of American Predominance is over.

Our leading bankers looted the state, plunged the world into deep recession and cost the United States eight million jobs. Now many of them stand by with sharpened knives and enhanced bonuses – willing to suggest how the salaries and jobs of others can be further cut. Consider the morality of that.

Will no one think hard about what this means for our budget and our political system until it is too late?

CHINA TO BAIL OUT SPAIN

Watched a news video that showed the leadership of Spain sit down at a table across from their Chinese counterparts with about 12 people on each side of the table.
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The Chinese looked like a conquering force signing papers after one country surrenders to another after a war.
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Some pundits say China benefits from this a variety of ways, it allows China to diversify out of dollars, keeps a competitor to the dollar the Euro afloat, opens up the possibility of dual technology transfers of going to China to give China access to more advanced weaponry , gives political leverage to China in the case of rising protectionism within the EU pretty much a win win deal for China.

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Of course this empowerment comes from the trade deficits that the US runs with China that gave China this surplus capital to give it more power.

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INDIA INVESTIGATING BUYING OIL FROM IRAN USING JAPANESE YEN , OR DIRHAM.

The Dirham I believe is some type of Gulf currency either from Qatar or U.A.E.

The main significance of this is less dollars to be needed by an major emerging economy India and further pressure on the dollar.

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PIPELINE BEGINS SUPPLYING OIL FROM RUSSIA TO CHINA.

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I believe this whole deal was done outside of the dollar in a bilateral trade arrangement between China and Russia.
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CHINA EYES BUILDING HIGH SPEED RAIL SYSTEM IN CALIFORNIA

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Per article U.S. lacks both technology and expertise in high-speed rail will need outside help to build railway.

Read in comments section on this article that much of trains original technology came from Siemens the German company I don’t know if that is accurate or not.

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But this article points out that the US is much better at engineering bonds as opposed to things in the real world.

I guess about 8 months ago would have been when US Federal Reserve would have started raising short term interest rates to stave off the inflation we are now seeing in commodities like gold, food and oil.
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Federal Reserve chief Bernanke said he wanted some inflation so he is getting it.
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Prices in houses are still deflating though, odd mix of deflation and inflation going on in different areas of economy.

Price Gold 1421.60 oz, cost of cup of coffee and my favorite coffee shop went up .20 cents in a month, from 1.95 for large cup of coffee to 2.15 a cup , and gasoline is 3.39 cents a gallon here.
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This is definitely inflation in these items.

Hope everyone has a prosperous, healthy and peaceful 2011..

I am currently reading two books.
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I am reading the Great Transformation The political and Economic Origins of our time by Karl Polyani
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The other book I am reading is The rise and fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer
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books on my short list when I finish one reading either of the two mentioned above I will probably take one from the pool listed below.
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The Grand Chess Board by Zbignew Brezinski

Blood Meridian by Cormac McCarthy

American Theocracy by Kevin Phillips

The Comedians by Graham Greene

Guns , Germs and Steel by Jared Diamond

Resource Wars by Michael T. Klare

They were masters of the Universe(to coin Tom Wolfes phrase) /masters of illusion who maintained power over humanity with a fictional economy that distributed fictional goods and services , created fictional jobs, and fictional desires within the consumers, fictional reality…

I love architecture and trees, in that order . I have less than even a surface knowledge about the architects and the species of trees but love both these things none the less.

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My favorite type of tree is called Melaleuca linariifolia also known as Snow in Summer, took me a long time to find out the name of the tree even though I would see them all over San Francisco.

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The tree is originally from Australia.

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I suppose the economy is getting better, but still a really tough grind for me here in Northern California.
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I did terrible at my SQL class this last semester, I am thinking about taking class again or maybe taking PHP along with an English class.

My Christmas is almost over, having my third delicious day off in row, really need the rest..
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Hope we all have a prosperous and peaceful 2011..